       
|
 Year 2007
 April
Is Thailand ready for nuclear power?
Nits 2007 Power Development Plan (2007 PDP), the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) lays out an option to build nuclear power plants capable of generating approximately 5,000 megawatts to serve the growing demand for electricity in Thailand.
This idea is not new. Thailand has been attempting to build nuclear energy facilities for more than 35 years. As with past efforts, the government’s latest attempt will likely face public opposition. Indeed, on Feb 7, a public hearing was cancelled due to protests, although another meeting on Tuesday of this week went ahead without incident.
According to the EPPO, both peak and overall demand for electricity in Thailand will grow at an annual rate of more than 5% from 2007 through 2021. By 2012, Thailand will need approximately 2,300 MW of new capacity and another 30,000 MW by 2021. The essential question is: where will Thailand get its energy? Which fuel-based technologies are best?
With high natural gas prices exceeding $6 per mmbtu (Million Britist Thermal Units), coal becomes the technology of choice for new power plants, In the PDP’s Least-Cost Planning Option (LCP Option), 21,700 MW of coal-fired capacity is relatively more competitive than natural gas-fired power plants.
However, it is not clear whether the LCP study has taken the (opportunity) cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into account. According to an MIT study, a 500 MW coal-fired power plant produces approximately three million tons per year of CO2. Although Thailand has endorsed the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, the government has not adopted policies to reduce CO2 emissions.
Placing a significant “green tax” on CO2 emission would make investments in clean coal (such as integrated gasification combined-cycle plant) and nuclear power more cost effective.
Since January 2005, the market price for CO2 in EU, for example, has ranged from $12 per tonne to as high as $35 per tonne, According to a Brattle Group study, when the CO2 price exceeds $30 per tonne, nuclear poser plants become more economically attractive. EPPO proposes to build 5,000 MW of nuclear poser plants by 2021 in its Option 3.
The popularity of nuclear power technology has undergone a revival across the globe. It comes at the time when global natural gas and oil prices are volatile, global warming issues are a growing concern, and fear of becoming energy-dependent on other countries is increasing. For all these reasons, building a nuclear power plant becomes a viable long-term option.
Throughout the world, there are currently 27 new nuclear power plants under construction, for a total generating capacity of 21,810 MW. To mention a few: three in China with a total capacity of 3,000 MW, two in Taiwan (2,600 MW), one in Japan (866 MW), and eight each in India and Russia with a total of 3,600 MW and 3,375 MW, respectively.
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is expecting to receive as many as 30 new nuclear reactor licence applications in the near term. Despite many problems in the early part of the nuclear age, US nuclear plants have greatly improved in efficiency and safety since the 1990s. Their average capacity factor exceeds 85% per year.
But is Thailand up to the task? The jury is still out whether it could and should join the international nuclear energy bandwagon. Many questions are unanswered:
Does Thailand have the capital needed to construct and operate nuclear power plant? Some studies have shown that the overnight construction cost of nuclear power plants ranges from $1,500 per kW to as high as $2,500, not to mention possible construction cost overruns. Additional funds will also be needed for operation and maintaining plants and nuclear decommissioning. Uranium prices are likely to rise between two to four times in response to growing world demand.
Will there be a role for the private sector in building a nuclear power plant? The private sector provides efficiency and shifts investment burdens from the state. But Thai energy policy must be clear in its direction and offer incentives to attract such large sums of investment. A policy such as a tax credit may be utilized to spur investments, instead of imposing a new energy tax on new power plants being built (Bangkok Post, Feb 26,2007). A property tax should be considered as a way to fund community development.
Will there be any standard in place to deal with spent fuel and nuclear wate? Spent fuel can be reprocessed to recover uranium and plutonium for re-use and to reduce the volume of high-level waste for disposal.
How can the Thai government ensure that the fuel obtained from reprocessing will not be used for weapons? Does Thailand have a plan to create a regulatory body that will ensure nuclear safety and radiological protection? What are our waste-disposal policies, considering that nuclear high-level waste disposal is a significant political problem that no country has yet solved?
Will there be any regulatory body that is responsible to oversee the construction and operation? Given the Suvarnabhumi Airport debacle, it is imperative to have a rigorous inspection programmer for both during the construction and after the plants are in operation to ensure quality and safety.
To successfully address these questions, the Thai government will need a clear energy policy that sends the right signal to investors, in particular, human capital that not only understands the technical side of building and operating nuclear power plants, but also is able to communicate effectively with the public to ensure their safety
.This article is written by Bangkok Post
05/04/2007
Back
|
|
